A Republican who insists he has no interest in returning to Congress suddenly finds himself at the center of one of the country’s most closely watched Senate races.
A new poll suggests that if he were to change his mind, the race could look quite different.
Former Rep. Trey Gowdy holds a commanding lead over every other potential Republican candidate in South Carolina’s special Senate election, according to a new poll, despite repeatedly saying he has no interest in seeking the seat left vacant by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.
The Republican-aligned firm Peak Insights conducted the survey and found Gowdy receiving 38% support among likely Republican primary voters.
No other candidate reached even half that level.
Rep. Ralph Norman placed a distant second with 13%.
Rep. Russell Fry and Sen. Darline Graham, Lindsey Graham’s sister who currently holds the seat by appointment, each received 9%.
Businessman Mark Lynch followed with 7%.
The poll surveyed 900 likely Republican primary voters before candidates officially entered the race.
Despite the strong showing, Gowdy continues to publicly reject the idea of running.
Through a spokesman, the former congressman said he “has not had any conversations about the open Senate seat and does not have any interest in it.”
Gowdy served four terms in the House of Representatives before retiring in 2019.
Before entering Congress, Gowdy served as a federal prosecutor in South Carolina.
Since leaving Washington, he has hosted a weekend program on Fox News.
South Carolina Senate GOP Primary
🟥 Trey Gowdy: 38%
🟥 Ralph Norman: 13%
🟥 Russell Fry: 9%
🟥 Darline Graham: 9%
🟥 Mark Lynch: 7%
🟥 Nancy Mace: 6%
🟥 Mark Sanford: 4%Peak Insights | 7/18-20 | 900 LVhttps://t.co/FDn60ZBKyi
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 21, 2026
A source close to Trey Gowdy confirms he loves being in South Carolina and his current job, and has not indicated any desire to return to politics.
— Benjamin Domenech (@bdomenech) July 21, 2026
Even with Gowdy insisting he is staying out of the race, Sen. Tim Scott has continued trying to persuade his longtime friend to reconsider.
Speaking during an event honoring Lindsey Graham, Scott praised Gowdy’s experience and qualifications.
“Trey would be an amazing senator for South Carolina,” Scott said. “I can’t think of a better person that, I think, represents the heart of South Carolina than Trey Gowdy.”
Scott acknowledged, however, that Gowdy has repeatedly indicated he is not interested.
“I’m trying to get him interested in it, but we’ll see if that works out at all,” Scott said.
Scott also suggested Gowdy’s background as a prosecutor and his experience on national security issues would make him well suited to continue much of the work Graham handled in the Senate, including serving on the Judiciary Committee.
The race is also shaping up as an early test of President Donald Trump’s political influence.
Last week, Trump endorsed Darline Graham after she was appointed to temporarily fill her brother’s Senate seat.
According to the Peak Insights poll, Trump’s endorsement does improve Graham’s standing.
After respondents were informed that Trump had endorsed her, her support rose from 9% to 16%.
Even then, however, Gowdy still led comfortably at 35%.
The poll suggests Trump’s endorsement narrows the gap but does not erase Gowdy’s overwhelming advantage among Republican primary voters.
Republicans view the seat as safely Republican, making the GOP primary the contest likely to determine Lindsey Graham’s long-term successor.
For now, the biggest question remains whether Gowdy can be convinced to enter the race.
If he declines, the Republican field appears far more competitive, with several candidates clustered closely together and no clear frontrunner emerging.
If he changes his mind, however, the new polling suggests the former congressman would begin the race as the candidate to beat, setting up what could become one of the highest-profile Republican primaries of the 2026 election cycle.
